Future war will cripple Indian economy, warn analysts
Islamabad: Strategic and economic analysts have warned that any future military conflict between Pakistan and India will severely damage India’s economy, exposing critical vulnerabilities along its western industrial corridor, which lies well within Pakistan’s missile range.
According to Kashmir Media Service, following the recent post-Pahalgam skirmishes and New Delhi’s hasty escalation, experts have observed that war with Pakistan is no longer a matter of political grandstanding or military optics—it now poses a direct threat to India’s trillion-dollar economy.
Economic data compiled by international news agencies and financial institutions revealed that the four-day military standoff between the two nuclear-armed neighbors cost India approximately $64 billion, including sharp declines in the stock market, loss of investor confidence, and disruption of trade routes. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) dropped by 16% within weeks of the conflict, severely denting New Delhi’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” ambitions.
“If hostilities had continued for 30 days, estimates projected a staggering $400 billion loss for the Indian economy,” analysts stated.
Particularly vulnerable are India’s western states—Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Punjab—which host critical infrastructure, industries, and trade hubs. These regions are located within 400 to 700 kilometers of the Pakistan border, placing them squarely in range of Pakistan’s precision-strike cruise missiles, such as the Ra’ad II, which has a strike range of 600 kilometers.
This growing risk becomes even more pronounced when viewed through the lens of India’s economic geography. Several of India’s key industrial and financial centers lie dangerously close to the Pakistan border, making them vulnerable to precision strikes in the event of a full-scale war.
Ahmedabad, Mumbai, Ludhiana and ports such as Kandla, Mundra, and Pipavav are in missile range of pakistan and experts warn that in the event of a war, any disruption could paralyze India’s manufacturing and exporting and derail national economic output.
Security analysts argue that India’s urban and industrial planning, heavily concentrated along its vulnerable western frontier, reflects a grave strategic miscalculation. While Indian leadership frequently engages in aggressive posturing, it fails to recognize the economic consequences of war with a nuclear-capable neighbor.
“India has built its economy right along the line of fire and now postures for war,” a senior regional analyst stated. “That’s not strategy—that’s economic self-sabotage.”
Experts concluded that while Pakistan continues to exercise strategic restraint, its responses are driven by a careful understanding of both military dynamics and economic realities. They warned that future conflict would not only cost lives but would also cause long-term damage to India’s economic foundations—potentially rewriting the region’s power equations not through firepower alone, but through fiscal collapse.
