Congress questions Modi government’s 7.8% GDP growth figure
“This is simple arithmetic, not economic growth”: Jairam Ramesh
New Delhi : The Congress has questioned the BJP-led Indian government’s claim that the country’s economy grew by 7.8% in the April–June 2026 quarter, with the party raising concerns over revisions to previous GDP estimates and the methodology used to calculate real growth.
According to Kashmir Media Service, Congress General Secretary Jairam Ramesh, in a statement, said there had been “a fair bit of chest-thumping” over the latest growth figure, but argued that an examination of how it was calculated raised serious questions.
He said growth was calculated by comparing the latest GDP estimate with that of the corresponding quarter of the previous year. However, he pointed out that the GDP estimate for April-June 2025 had been revised downward from around Rs 86 lakh crore to about Rs 80 lakh crore.
“If you keep shrinking the base you’re comparing against, this year’s number will automatically look much bigger than it really is, even if nothing has actually changed on the ground. That is simple arithmetic, not economic growth,” Ramesh said.
Citing former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg, Ramesh said nominal growth during the latest quarter would be closer to 2.6%, rather than the 10.3% claimed by the government, if the base year had not been revised down. After accounting for inflation, he said, real growth would be “basically zero — nowhere near 7.8%.”
IIOJK: CAG report highlights fiscal weakness, GDP growth slows
Ramesh said the issue extended beyond the revision of the April–June 2025 estimate, adding that nominal GDP figures for almost every quarter of the four years since the 2022–23 financial year had been revised down under the “new series.”
According to his assessment, GDP estimates had been reduced by between Rs 8 lakh crore and Rs 12 lakh crore for each of the four years, resulting in an aggregate downward revision of Rs 43 lakh crore.
Ramesh said the latest figures appeared particularly weak in manufacturing and private consumption.
Citing Garg’s calculations, he said manufacturing gross value added had declined by 5.2% from the previous year, while private consumption had fallen by 5.4%.
Ramesh also referred to the International Monetary Fund’s May 2025 assessment, which gave India’s national accounts a “C” grade, describing it as the second-lowest grade awarded by the institution. He said the assessment raised further questions about the reliability of the figures being presented by the Indian government.
Ramesh questioned the Modi government over the scale of downward revisions to GDP estimates over the past four years and sought an explanation for the aggregate reduction of Rs 43 lakh crore in the estimated size of India’s economy.
