From Gulf Shock to Empty Plates
Narendra Modi’s Energy Failures Are Now India’s Food Crisis
Humayun Aziz Sandeela
There is a quiet anxiety spreading across India’s farms. It does not begin in the fields, but far away in the tense waters of the Strait of Hormuz. What happens there now decides what reaches the dinner table across India. This is no longer just an energy issue. It is becoming a question of food, survival, and dignity.
India depends heavily on the Gulf for its energy needs. About 85 percent of crude oil, 69 percent of LNG and nearly half of LPG come from this region. When tensions rise and shipments slow down, the impact is immediate. Prices rise, supplies tighten, and uncertainty begins to ripple through the economy. What is worrying is not just the disruption, but how unprepared the system appears to handle it.
For farmers, the consequences are deeply personal. Fertilisers depend on natural gas, and more than a quarter of India’s fertiliser imports come from West Asia. With supplies disrupted, urea production has reportedly fallen by nearly 50 percent just before the Kharif season. This is the moment when farmers prepare their land and plan their crops. Instead, many are now forced to worry about whether they can even afford the inputs they need.
Energy is part of every step in agriculture. Diesel runs irrigation pumps, tractors, transport vehicles and storage systems. When fuel prices rise, everything becomes more expensive. Farmers spend more, but earn less. It creates a cycle of stress that is difficult to break.
The strain is already visible in the markets. Rice exports worth around Rs 25,000 crore are stuck. Bananas from Barwani are selling at almost half their usual price. Onions from Nashik are sitting at ports, unable to move. Behind each of these numbers are farmers who have done their part, only to see their produce trapped in a system that is not working.
This crisis does not stand alone. It is unfolding alongside a much deeper problem. Climate change is steadily weakening India’s agricultural base. According to the Indian Council of Agricultural Research, 310 out of 651 districts are climate vulnerable, and 109 face very high risk. In recent years, nearly 80 percent of farmers have experienced crop losses due to extreme weather. In 2024 alone, 3.2 million hectares of farmland were affected by floods, droughts and heatwaves.
For many farmers, this feels like pressure from all sides. On one hand, the climate is becoming more unpredictable. On the other, the cost of farming is rising because of global disruptions. The safety nets that should protect them seem fragile.
This is where the questions of diplomacy and leadership become unavoidable. A country so dependent on external energy sources cannot afford to remain a bystander in crises that directly affect its lifelines. Yet, during the recent West Asia tensions, India found itself with little influence, watching events unfold while others shaped outcomes. Critics like Congress MP Jairam Ramesh have pointed out that India’s diplomacy in the West Asia crisis fell short, leaving room for neighboring actors, including Pakistan, to shape outcomes that directly affect India’s energy security.
Communist Part of India (CPI) leader P Sandosh Kumar described the government’s stance on the West Asia crisis as “hollow and evasive,” accusing it of neglecting key diplomatic issues and failing to address implications for energy security and trade.
The consequences are now visible across India. Domestic energy stress has translated into shortages and price pressures, with even local political forums raising concerns about how foreign policy failures are affecting everyday life. A weakening rupee and rising import costs have only added to the burden, amplifying the shock for both consumers and farmers.
This is not an isolated pattern. Even in relations with major global partners, the promise of strong personal diplomacy has not always translated into economic security. Trade frictions and shifting policies have exposed the limits of those relationships when India needed stability the most. The gap between projection and outcome is becoming harder to ignore.
The Bharatiya Janata Party government often speaks of global influence and economic strength. But strength is also measured by how well a country protects its most vulnerable citizens during difficult times. When farmers struggle to access fertiliser, when produce cannot reach markets, and when costs continue to rise, those claims begin to feel distant from reality.
What India is facing today is a chain reaction. A disruption in energy flows is affecting fertiliser, which is affecting farming, which is affecting food availability and prices. Each link in this chain is connected. Ignoring that connection only deepens the crisis.
The challenge now is not just to respond, but to rethink. Energy security and food security cannot be treated separately. They are part of the same system. Until that reality is acknowledged and addressed with urgency, the anxiety in India’s fields will not fade.
